Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum

The Scottish referendum: Bookies had been predicting an 80 percent potential for a ‘no’ vote, whilst the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.

Did bookies understand the results associated with Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure appears that way.

Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 % of voters deciding against dissolving the 300-year union of nations and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and votes that are losing since wide as 10 %; lots of polls had predicted that the result was too close to phone and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions were split straight down the middle.

The stark reality is, polls were all over the place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote within the weeks leading up to your referendum. And although these people were properly predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the special day, they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ triumph.

Margins of mistake

Maybe Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured down ages ago. As the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online sports outfit that is betting had already determined to pay out bettors who had their funds on a’no’ vote a few times before the referendum even occurred. And even though there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from a place of supreme confidence, because the betting areas were rating the likelihood of a ‘no’ vote at around 80 percent at the least a week before the vote happened. It was a forecast that, unlike that of the heavily swinging results of the pollsters, remained stable in the lead as much as the referendum.

But why, then, are polls so unreliable when compared to the wagering areas, and why is the media in such thrall to their wildly unreliable results? The polling companies openly admit that their studies are inaccurate, frequently advising that we have to permit a margin of mistake, commonly around five percent. Which means that in a closely fought race, such as the Scottish referendum, their information is utterly useless. The existence of a 5 percent margin of error renders that survey useless in a race where one party, according to the polls, is leading by, say, 52 percent.

The questions that are wrong

There are many factors that produce polls unreliable, too many, in reality, to list here. Sometimes the sample size of respondents is simply too low, or it is unrepresentative of the population. Often they ask leading questions, or those that conduct them are dishonest or sloppy about recording information. However the ultimate, prevailing explanation why polls fail is they usually ask the question that is wrong. Instead of asking people who they are going to vote for, they must certanly be asking the question that the bookies always ask: ‘Who do you consider will win?’

Research conducted by Professor Justin Wolfers suggests that this concern yields better forecasts, because, to quote Wolfers, it ‘leads them to also reflect on the opinions of those because it may yield more honest answers. around them, as well as perhaps also’

Dishonest Answers

Those interviewed by pollsters are far more likely to express their support for change, while suppressing their concerns about the possible negative consequences in a case such as the Scottish referendum, where there is a large and popular movement for change. When expected about a problem on the spot, it’s easier to express the perceived view that is popular. For the Scots, a ‘yes’ vote might express the appealing proposition of severing ties with a remote and unpopular federal government in Westminster, but it also means uncertainty and feasible economic chaos.

As Wolfers states, ‘There is just a tendency that is historical polling to overstate the likelihood of success of referendums, perhaps because we are more willing to tell pollsters we will vote for change than to actually do so. Such biases are less inclined to distort polls that ask those who they think will win. Indeed, in giving their expectations, some respondents may even mirror on whether or otherwise not they believe polling that is recent.

Simply speaking, when expected whether they might vote for an independent Scotland, a significant quantity of Scots evidently lied. Gamblers, having said that, were brutally honest.

Suffolk Downs to Close Wynn Everett License that is following Choose

Suffolk Downs in happier times: Horseracing attendance has fallen by 40 percent in the past few years. Now the choice of Wynn Everett for the East Massachusetts casino license has sealed the racetrack’s fate.(Image:

Suffolk Downs, the historic horseracing that is thoroughbred in East Boston, is to close, officials have announced. Meanwhile, Wynn Resorts celebrates securing the single East Massachusetts casino permit with regards to their Wynn Everett project, that will see the construction of a $1.2 billion casino resort in Everett, barring a casino that is unlikely vote in November.

Suffolk Downs is be the casualty that is first of week’s selection procedure. In favoring the Wynn bid over that of the Mohegan Sun’s, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission has hammered the nail that is final the coffin of thoroughbred horseracing in hawaii. Suffolk is one of only two horseracing tracks in Massachusetts, and the only one exclusively for thoroughbreds.

Mohegan Sun’s proposed resort was to have been built on land owned by Suffolk Downs in Revere, and the racetrack had pledged to continue horseracing there for at the least 15 years should Mohegan Sun win the bid. However, the Commission, which voted 3:1 against Mohegan Sun, decided that the Wynn proposal offered better possible to create jobs and open up new avenues of revenue for the state. Suffolk Downs COO Chip Tuttle made the announcement that the track will never find a way to continue immediately after the Gaming Commission’s decision had been made public.

End regarding the Track

‘We are extraordinarily disappointed as this course of action is likely to cost the Commonwealth a large number of jobs, small company and family farms,’ Tuttle said. ‘ We shall be meeting with workers and horsemen over the next several times to discuss how we wind down racing operations, being a legacy that is 79-year of racing in Massachusetts will be coming to a finish, ensuing in unemployment and uncertainty for many hardworking individuals.’

The industry has been hit by way of a 40 % reduction in the last few years and Suffolk’s closure will probably impact hundreds of thoroughbred breeders, owners, farriers and others whom make their living in Massachusetts horseracing industry. The necessity to safeguard Suffolk Downs had been one of many primary motivations for the 2011 Gambling Act, which expanded casino gaming in Massachusetts and created the Massachusetts that is east casino, and the decision to go with Wynn has angered many people.

‘Today’s decision to award the license to Everett effectively put several hundred of my constituents out of work,’ said Representative RoseLee Vincent, a Revere Democrat. ‘It is disturbing that the commission could reduce the working jobs of 800 hardworking people.’

Deep History

Many industry workers feel betrayed by politicians and also the Gaming Commission. ‘What’s depressing is we worked so difficult to obtain that gaming bill passed with the proven fact that it would definitely conserve the farms and save racing in Massachusetts,’ said George F. Brown, the owner and supervisor of a farm that is breeding who added that the ruling would ‘probably pretty much … placed most of the farms like mine out of business.’

Suffolk Downs exposed in 1935, soon after parimutuel betting was legalized in the state. In 1937, Seabiscuit won the Massachusetts Handicap right here, breaking the history in the process. The race was attended by 40,000 individuals. Over the years, the track has hosted events featuring legendary racehorses like Whirlaway, Funny Cide, and Cigar. In 1966, the Beatles played a concert here regarding the track’s infield in front side of 24,000 fans that are screaming.

Fundamentally, though, a rich history wasn’t enough to conserve Suffolk Downs, and, ironically and poignantly, the bill that has been made to rescue this famous old racetrack appears to have killed it.

Donald Trump Poised to Take Back Trump Atlantic City Casinos

Is Donald Trump seriously interested in saving Atlantic City or is he just interested in publicity? (Image: AP)

Can Donald Trump save Atlantic City? And will he?

The word from The Donald is he says he’s exactly what AC has been missing all these years that he can, and what’s more. This week and its non-Donald-related owner Trump Entertainment prepared to file for bankruptcy, the billionaire real estate mogul announced that he is ‘looking into’ mounting a rescue attempt as the Trump Plaza shuttered its doors.

Asked by the Press of Atlantic City whether he would part of to save The Trump Plaza and its particular at-risk sister property, the Trump Taj Mahal, the Donald said, ‘We’ll see what are the results. If I can help the people of Atlantic City I’ll do it.’

Later on, on Twitter, and clearly warming to his theme, Trump stated: ‘we left Atlantic City years back, good timing. Now I might buy back in, at much lower expense, to save Plaza & Taj. They were run defectively by funds!’

Trump happens to be hugely critical of his former company Trump Entertainment in recent months, and has sought to distance himself from its stricken casino properties. In July, possibly catching wind of impending bankruptcy, he launched legal proceedings to have his name removed through the casinos in an attempt to safeguard their brand, of which he could be hugely protective.

Sentimental Side?

‘Since Mr. Trump left Atlantic City numerous years back,’ states the lawsuit, ‘the license entities have allowed the casino properties to fall under a state that is utter of and have otherwise unsuccessful to use and manage the casino properties in accordance with the high standards of quality and luxury required under the permit agreement.’

Trump left the New Jersey casino industry last year, and Trump Entertainment was bought out by a group of hedge fund managers and business bondholders, have been permitted to retain the brand name in return for a 10 % ownership stake for Trump in the reorganized business. He has already established nothing to do with the gambling enterprises’ day-to-day operations ever since then.

‘Does anyone notice that Atlantic City lost its miracle after I left years ago,’ Trump tweeted. ‘It can be so sad to see just what has occurred to Atlantic City. So many decisions that are bad the pols over time: airport, convention center, etc.’

In the early ’80s, Trump embarked on a project that is joint Holiday Inn and Harrahs to build the break Inn Casino resort. It had been completed in 1984, and he immediately bought out his company partners and renamed the property the Trump Plaza. It was the first casino he ever owned, and this week it closed. Could it be that the notoriously cold-blooded home developer has a sentimental part? Or perhaps is it, just, as many people think, that he can not resist some publicity that is good?

Promotion Stunt a Possibility

Senator Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) believes in the latter explanation.

‘Donald is a guy who likes to see his name into the paper,’ he stated. ‘He’s never ever been shy about seeking publicity or publicity that is obtaining. The question is whether this is more promotion for Donald or whether he could be serious about coming back to Atlantic City in a way that is real. We will see down the line. Is Donald Trump seeking to get some publicity, or is he serious? And if he’s serious, come on in and write some checks.’

‘I am able to see Donald’s ego wanting him to come back as a savior,’ agreed gaming consultant Steve Norton. ‘ I do not think Donald’s title would assist the casinos that much,’ he said. ‘Our problem is, other casinos have opened up and take off traffic from Philadelphia and New York.’

Intriguingly, so that as if to spite the naysayers, the Trump’s helicopter was seen arriving on the roof associated with the Taj on Tuesday. Could it be that Trump is really prepared to place his cash where their mouth is?

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